Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?

Low probability of Claudia Sheinbaum leaving office by June 30.

The market indicates a strong belief that Claudia Sheinbaum will remain in her position as President of Mexico until at least June 30, with a 94.75% probability of her staying. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, though slightly higher at 91.75%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Sheinbaum remaining in office.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests slight underestimation of risk.
• 3 Historical trends show incumbents rarely leave office abruptly without significant cause.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments to influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.