Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?

Low probability of Congress passing the Iran war powers resolution by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 3.90% chance of Congress passing the Iran war powers resolution by the end of March, while the AI model suggests an 8.4% probability. With a significant majority of participants betting against the resolution, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about the resolution passing.
• 2 AI model suggests slightly higher chances than the market.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 491 hours.
• 5 Current sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.

A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.

The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.