Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

The market shows a low probability of the Israeli parliament being dissolved by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Israeli parliament will not be dissolved by the end of March, with a NO probability of 94.4%. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of dissolution at 91.4%. This indicates a consensus among participants that political stability is expected in the near term.

• 1 Market probability for dissolution is low at 5.60%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 8.6%.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.