Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?

The referendum on judicial reform in Italy is very closely contested.

The market shows a slight edge towards a YES outcome at 51.50%, while the AI probability suggests a NO outcome at 51.5%. With both probabilities being so close, the market is considered fairly priced, indicating uncertainty as the referendum approaches its expiry in 195 hours.

• 1 Current market sentiment is evenly split, reflecting uncertainty.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a highly competitive environment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate belief in the current probabilities.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited, adding urgency to potential shifts.
• 5 Market edge suggests no significant mispricing at this moment.

This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.