Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Market predicts a high likelihood of Díaz-Canel leaving leadership by year-end.

The market indicates a 72.5% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will no longer be in power by December 31. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment of a 67% probability, suggesting a consensus on his potential departure. However, the NO side appears undervalued, indicating some uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Díaz-Canel's departure.
• 2 The NO side is undervalued by 5.5 points, indicating potential market inefficiency.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry of 2490 hours allows for significant developments to occur.
• 5 Political dynamics in Cuba could shift rapidly, impacting market probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.