Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Market shows a slight lean towards Díaz-Canel leaving by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a 53.5% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will no longer be leader of Cuba by June 30, suggesting a closely contested outlook. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a balanced edge, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting uncertainty around his political future.

• 1 Current market probability shows a slight favor towards a leadership change.
• 2 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 3 Market edge of 0 suggests no significant mispricing at this time.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential developments impacting the outcome.
• 5 Political dynamics in Cuba remain fluid, affecting market sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.