Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?

Low probability of Miguel Díaz-Canel leaving leadership by March 31.

The market indicates an 84.4% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will remain in power until at least March 31. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that his leadership is stable at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Díaz-Canel staying in power.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is minimal.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential political developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge noted.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.