Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Market shows a close probability on Díaz-Canel leaving office by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a slight edge for Díaz-Canel being out by June 30, with a 51% probability for 'YES'. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a marginally higher chance for 'NO' at 52%, indicating uncertainty in the political landscape.

• 1 Market probability is very close, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of Díaz-Canel remaining in power.
• 3 The edge of -3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting mixed sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 2677 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.