Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Market shows a 38.5% chance of Netanyahu leaving by the end of 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 38.5% probability that Netanyahu will be out of office by the end of 2026, suggesting a stronger belief in his continuation in power with a 61.5% probability for 'NO'. The market appears fairly priced with no significant edge, reflecting a balanced view on the likelihood of political changes in the coming years.

• 1 Current sentiment favors Netanyahu remaining in office.
• 2 Political stability factors heavily influence market probabilities.
• 3 Historical trends show incumbents often maintain power until elections.
• 4 Liquidity in the market suggests moderate participant confidence.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential political developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.