Market indicates a 55% chance of no strike impacting Kyiv during the specified week.
The prediction market shows a higher probability for a 'NO' outcome at 55%, suggesting that participants believe a strike will not occur. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 0, indicating balanced sentiment. Confidence is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty in the political landscape leading up to March 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality during the specified week, inclusive of the listed Monday and the following Sunday, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Confirmation of damage caused by at least one qualifying unintercepted projectile within the specified area and timeframe will resolve this market immediately.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution so