Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

The market shows a low probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026.

Current market sentiment indicates a strong belief that a ceasefire is unlikely before the specified date, with a NO probability of 92%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, suggesting that significant geopolitical factors are at play that may hinder peace negotiations.

• 1 Market probability for ceasefire is low at 8%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market at 11%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1240 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 3.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide co