The market shows low probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026.
Current market probabilities indicate a strong skepticism regarding a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, with a 79.5% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the situation remains tense and unresolved. The market appears fairly priced, indicating a consensus on the low likelihood of a ceasefire occurring within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating