SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?

The market suggests a low likelihood of the SAVE Act becoming law by 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 28.5% chance of the SAVE Act becoming law by December 31, 2026, with a stronger consensus against it at 71.5%. The Pulse AI aligns closely with these figures, suggesting a slightly lower probability of 27%. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting an 80% confidence level in these predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily against the SAVE Act passing.
• 2 Political dynamics may shift as new legislative sessions begin.
• 3 Historical trends show similar legislation facing challenges.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is moderate, indicating stable participant interest.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 1166 hours until the deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any bill, measure, or resolution that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition for registering to vote or to vote in U.S. federal elections is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law, or is otherwise enacted into U.S. federal law, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Examples of qualifying legislation include H.R. 22, the “SAVE Act,” and H.R. 7296, the “SAVE America Act.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.