Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Market shows low probability for Starmer leaving by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Starmer will remain in his position until at least April 2026, with a 13.5% chance of him leaving. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 18%, suggesting some uncertainty but still favoring his continuation. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Starmer staying in his role.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing assessments of risk.
• 3 A 4.5 edge indicates the market is likely accurately priced.
• 4 The confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.