Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Market predicts a 67% chance Starmer will leave by the end of 2026.

The market shows a strong belief, at 67%, that Starmer will not remain in his position until December 31, 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, indicating a consensus on the likelihood of his departure. The confidence level of 75 suggests a moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards Starmer leaving by 2026.
• 2 The probability reflects a stable consensus with no significant edge.
• 3 Confidence rating indicates moderate certainty among participants.
• 4 Market dynamics could shift with major political developments.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential changes in the political landscape.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.