Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Market strongly favors Starmer remaining until at least February 2026.

The prediction market shows a 0% probability for Starmer leaving by February 28, 2026, indicating strong confidence in his position. The Pulse AI aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of his departure, with a 3% probability for 'YES'. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Starmer leaving.
• 2 Key factors include his current popularity and party support.
• 3 Historical trends suggest leaders often remain until election cycles.
• 4 Liquidity in the market indicates stable betting patterns.
• 5 Time pressure is low with over 2200 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.