Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Market shows a 43.5% chance of Starmer leaving by June 30, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 43.5% probability that Starmer will be out by June 30, 2026, with a slightly higher likelihood of him remaining in position. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting that current sentiments and factors influencing this prediction are balanced. Confidence in this assessment is relatively high at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards Starmer remaining in position.
• 2 The probability reflects a stable political environment for Starmer.
• 3 No significant liquidity issues noted in the market.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential developments in political dynamics.
• 5 Historical trends suggest leadership stability in similar contexts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.