Starmer out by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates low probability of Starmer leaving by March 31, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Starmer exiting his position by March 31, 2026, with a 96.05% probability for 'NO.' The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75/100, suggesting that current sentiments and factors influencing this prediction are stable.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Starmer remaining in position.
• 2 The probability of 3.95% for 'YES' suggests minimal perceived risk of his departure.
• 3 Market confidence at 75/100 indicates a moderate level of certainty in current predictions.
• 4 No edge identified, implying that the market is accurately reflecting the situation.
• 5 Time to expiry of 2722 hours allows for potential political developments to influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.