Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Market favors a NO outcome for Trump ending military operations against Iran by April 15th.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Trump will not announce the end of military operations against Iran by the specified date, with a NO probability of 71.5%. The market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting that current sentiment aligns with the probabilities assigned.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities reflect a balanced market with no edge.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at 631 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Historical context suggests skepticism around military announcements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.