Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Market overwhelmingly predicts Trump will not announce end of military operations against Iran.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Trump announcing an end to military operations in Iran by March 15th, with a 100% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for 'YES', indicating a general expectation that current military operations will continue.

• 1 Current market sentiment is firmly against any announcement by Trump.
• 2 The probability of a 'YES' outcome is extremely low at 3%.
• 3 Market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 85/100, indicating strong market conviction.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 45 hours, adding urgency to any potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.