Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?

Market strongly indicates no end to military operations against Iran by March 1st.

The prediction market shows a 100% probability for 'NO' regarding Trump's announcement to end military operations against Iran by March 1st. With a low AI probability of 3% for 'YES', the consensus suggests strong skepticism about such an announcement occurring within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the announcement.
• 2 The predicted probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 80 suggests a strong consensus among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.