Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Market indicates a higher likelihood of Trump's approval rating staying down this week.

The prediction market shows a 68% probability that Trump's approval will remain down this week, with a corresponding 32% chance for an increase. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting no significant misalignment between current sentiment and the predicted outcome. Confidence in this assessment stands at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment leans towards a decrease in approval ratings.
• 2 Market probabilities reflect a stable outlook with no significant edge.
• 3 Historical trends show fluctuations in approval ratings can be influenced by external events.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is uncertain, which may affect volatility in predictions.

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 6, 2026, than on March 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.

The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.

If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bullet