Trump impeached by end of 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of Trump being impeached by 2026.

With a market probability of 10.50% for impeachment, the sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome at 89.5%. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance at 13.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 75/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 3.
• 3 Impeachment likelihood is historically low for former presidents.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.