Trump out as President by April 30?

Low probability of Trump being out as President by April 30.

The market shows a strong consensus against Trump being out of office by the end of April, with a 97.95% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 5.05%, indicating some minor uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Trump remaining in office.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical trends show incumbents typically serve their full terms.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating confidence in current odds.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential developments but remains low risk.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.