Trump out as President by June 30?

Low market probability for Trump leaving office by June 30 indicates strong confidence in his presidency.

The prediction market shows a 6% chance of Trump being out as President by June 30, with a strong consensus against it at 94%. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 9%, suggesting that market participants largely believe he will remain in office. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors Trump remaining in office.
• 2 Key factors include ongoing legal challenges and political stability.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest low turnover in presidential terms.
• 4 Market liquidity indicates a stable environment for current predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with over 2524 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.