Trump out as President by March 31?

The market strongly favors Trump remaining President by March 31.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that Trump will not be out of office by the end of March. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a low likelihood of his departure, suggesting stability in his position. The edge of 1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment and analysis.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Trump staying in office.
• 2 Legal and political factors are key to any potential changes.
• 3 Historical trends show incumbents rarely leave office unexpectedly.
• 4 Market liquidity suggests confidence in the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, but current events could rapidly influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.