Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

The market suggests a low likelihood of Ukraine elections by December 31, 2026.

With a market probability of 76.5% for 'NO', the consensus indicates skepticism about elections occurring by the end of 2026. The confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty, while the edge of 0 suggests that the market is fairly priced. The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments that could influence outcomes.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for elections by the deadline.
• 2 Political dynamics in Ukraine remain complex and fluid.
• 3 The market reflects a cautious outlook on electoral feasibility.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, with no significant betting anomalies.
• 5 Time until the deadline allows for potential shifts in the political landscape.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.