US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?

Low probability for US military support of Iran opposition by April 30.

The prediction market indicates a 7% chance of the US announcing military support for Iran's opposition by the end of April, with a strong consensus against this outcome at 93%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 11.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI estimate.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 4.5 edge.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.

“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or a