US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?

Market favors no US military support for Iran opposition by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that the US will not announce military support for Iranian opposition by the end of March, with a NO probability of 76.5%. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher chance of YES at 27%, but overall confidence in the market is moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a consensus against military support.
• 3 Historical trends indicate low US military intervention in Iran.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting fair pricing.
• 5 Time until expiry is over 20 days, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.

“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or a