US strike on Colombia by March 31?

The market shows a low probability of a US strike on Colombia by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that a US strike on Colombia will not occur, with a 96.45% likelihood of 'NO'. The confidence level of 65 suggests moderate certainty in this assessment, while the edge of 0 indicates the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability for a strike is very low at 3.55%.
• 2 High confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the 'NO' outcome.
• 3 The market is currently fairly priced with no edge detected.
• 4 External geopolitical events could influence market perceptions.
• 5 The time to expiry for this market is currently unknown.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

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