US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Market suggests a low probability of a US strike on Cuba by year-end.

The market currently indicates a 44.5% chance of a US strike on Cuba by December 31, with a slightly higher probability for a 'NO' outcome at 55.5%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, suggesting a balanced outlook with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a fairly balanced view on potential military action.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of US strikes in Cuba.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable with no significant fluctuations noted.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

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