US strike on Cuba by January 31?

The market strongly favors no US strike on Cuba by January 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of a US strike on Cuba, with a strong consensus against such an event. The Pulse AI model also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a minimal likelihood of a strike occurring. Given the high confidence level and time to expiry, the market appears to be accurately priced.

• 1 Market probability shows a definitive NO stance at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a very low chance of YES at 3%.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 High confidence level of 75/100 supports current market sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry of 7130 hours allows for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

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