US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

The market indicates a low likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30.

With a market probability of 31.50% for a ceasefire and a Pulse AI probability of 30%, sentiment leans towards a NO outcome. The edge of -1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a cautious outlook on diplomatic resolutions.

• 1 Current sentiment favors a NO outcome with 68.5% probability.
• 2 Recent geopolitical tensions may hinder ceasefire prospects.
• 3 Historical trends show low success rates for similar negotiations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, affecting urgency in negotiations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta