US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Market shows equal odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7.

The prediction market indicates a balanced probability of 50% for both a ceasefire and no ceasefire by the specified date. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors a ceasefire at 51.5%, suggesting a marginally optimistic outlook. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 318 hours, the situation remains uncertain and closely contested.

• 1 Market probability is evenly split at 50% for both outcomes.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight edge for a ceasefire at 51.5%.
• 3 Confidence in the market is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time remaining until expiry is significant at 318 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a minimal edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta