US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

The market is evenly split on a US-Iran ceasefire by year-end.

With a 50% probability for both yes and no, the market indicates uncertainty regarding a ceasefire between the US and Iran by December 31. The Pulse AI suggests a slight lean towards a yes outcome at 51.5%, reflecting a marginally more optimistic sentiment. The confidence level of 60 out of 100 indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment is evenly divided at 50% for both outcomes.
• 2 The Pulse AI shows a slight inclination towards a ceasefire at 51.5%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 1898 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta