US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?

The market shows a strong consensus against a US-Iran ceasefire by March 2.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that a ceasefire will not occur by March 2. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of a ceasefire, suggesting a strong consensus among participants that conditions are not favorable for such an agreement at this time.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 97% for NO.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 90/100, indicating strong conviction in the current assessment.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests that the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta