US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by March 31.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against a ceasefire, with only 1.05% likelihood of a YES outcome. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 4.05%, indicating some divergence in sentiment. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome at 98.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 4.05% for a YES outcome.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 High confidence level of 85/100 suggests reliability in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta