Market shows a 58.5% chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by May 31.
The prediction market indicates a 58.5% probability for a ceasefire between the US and Iran by May 31, suggesting a moderate expectation for resolution. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 57%, indicating a consensus on the likelihood of this event occurring. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a time to expiry of nearly 1994 hours, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -1.5.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta