Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

There's a 61% chance a province will schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027.

The market indicates a strong inclination towards a YES outcome, with a probability of 61%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a lower likelihood at 55.5%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 5.5 points. This discrepancy may reflect varying interpretations of political sentiment and upcoming events.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a YES outcome at 61%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a lower probability of 55.5% for a YES.
• 3 The NO side appears undervalued by 5.5 points, suggesting potential market correction.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7116 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.