Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Low probability for Abelardo de la Espriella to win the 1st round of the 2026 election.

The prediction market indicates a 6.5% chance of Abelardo de la Espriella winning the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with a strong consensus against this outcome at 93.5%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 11%, but overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 4.5 and moderate confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Historical trends suggest low chances for lesser-known candidates in early rounds.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating a well-informed betting environment.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).