Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Abelardo de la Espriella has a 28% chance of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The market indicates a 28% probability of Abelardo de la Espriella winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, suggesting a stronger sentiment against his candidacy with 72% probability for a loss. The market appears fairly priced with no edge detected, reflecting a balanced view among participants. Confidence in this prediction is moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome at 72%.
• 2 The probability aligns with Pulse AI's assessment of 28% for YES.
• 3 No edge indicates a well-balanced market with no clear advantage.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2506 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).