Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

The market strongly favors Adam Crum losing the 2026 Alaska governor election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.25% chance of Adam Crum not winning the election, with a low market probability of 0.75% for a win. The Pulse AI also reflects a strong belief in his defeat, assigning only a 5.25% chance of victory. This suggests a consensus against his candidacy at this time.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Crum's victory.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a higher probability of 5.25% for a win.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 5535 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.