Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

The market strongly favors AfD not winning the most seats in 2026 elections.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of the AfD winning the most seats in the upcoming Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections, with a market probability of only 0.05% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a strong consensus against AfD's chances, albeit with slightly higher probabilities. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 AfD's historical performance in Baden-Württemberg is weak.
• 3 Political landscape may shift due to upcoming events.
• 4 Market liquidity suggests limited betting activity.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to predictions.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).