Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

AfD is favored to win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt elections.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of the AfD winning the most seats in the upcoming Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections, with a market probability of 90%. However, the AI probability suggests a slightly lower confidence at 84.5%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 5.5 points.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors AfD winning.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued based on AI analysis.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time until the election allows for significant political developments.
• 5 Market dynamics may shift with new information or events.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).