Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

The market strongly favors NO for AfD winning second most seats in 2026 elections.

Current market sentiment indicates a low probability of the AfD securing the second most seats in the upcoming Baden-Württemberg elections, with a market probability of 0%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, assigning a 1.5% probability to a YES outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with high confidence.

• 1 Market probability for YES is at 0%, indicating strong skepticism about AfD's chances.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 1.5%, but still low overall.
• 3 High confidence level of 90/100 reflects strong consensus among analysts.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 indicates that the market is considered fairly priced.
• 5 No time to expiry is noted, which may affect market dynamics as elections approach.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will r