Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?

The market strongly favors AICO not winning the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of AICO winning the most seats, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 1.5%, indicating minimal uncertainty but overall confidence in the NO outcome.

• 1 Market consensus is overwhelmingly against AICO winning seats.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight chance for AICO, but it's still very low.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 High confidence level indicates strong market stability.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate.

If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).