Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Alex Padilla is highly unlikely to win the 2026 California Governor Election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Alex Padilla winning the 2026 California Governor Election, with a 99.85% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.15% for a YES outcome, indicating a general lack of confidence in his candidacy.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also indicates low confidence in Padilla's win.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.