Will Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?

The market shows a low probability for López Chau and Nieto to advance.

The prediction market indicates a 1.30% chance of Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advancing to the runoff, with a strong consensus against it at 98.7%. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability of 5.8%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market's assessment. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests some disagreement.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 327 hours.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).