Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Alfonso López Chau has a low chance of winning the 2026 presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a 19.75% probability of Alfonso López Chau winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, with a stronger consensus against him at 80.25%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 24.25%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100, indicating uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry of 800 hours allows for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).