Will Alfredo Solares win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?

Alfredo Solares has a low chance of winning the 2026 mayoral election in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Alfredo Solares winning the upcoming mayoral election, with a probability of only 3.15% for a YES outcome. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 7.65%, indicating a general lack of confidence in his candidacy. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting stability in current sentiments.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability is significantly lower than the AI prediction.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 183 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, with no major fluctuations in betting activity.

The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).